Short interest remains near an all-time high, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd.(Updates price moves throughout)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. (Bloomberg) -- Whatever caused the tech selloff, and inflation angst looks to be the likeliest culprit, evidence has been gathering for weeks that traders were bracing for declines.Short interest in the Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded fund, in free fall as recently as March, was surging before the index had its biggest plunge since March. Short interest on the biggest ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100, or QQQ, increased to 3.6% of the stock outstanding, the highest level since August and up from 0.9% in December. Alphabet Inc's Google has launched international money transfer partnerships with remittances firms Wise and Western Union Co for users of its U.S. payments app, the companies said on Tuesday. )," the Muddy Waters report said. Google Pay users in the United States can now transfer money to app customers in India and Singapore, with plans to expand to the 80 countries available via Wise, and 200 via Western Union by the end of the year. 8. Totoki dispelled analyst concerns over pandemic induced remote demand saturation by emphasizing its market share and reputation, which led to the sales of over 100 million units of the PlayStation 4. This response reminds us of the reaction from Noble Group (NOBL SP) to our April 2015 short thesis, calling it “inaccurate, unreliable, and misleading”.3 When we shorted Noble it was rated BBB- (like Casino). jo.type = 'text/javascript'; With inflation threatening to break higher, the cohort’s expensive valuations are growing increasingly harder to justify. I am not sure I like it as well as before but everything is changing. That may make sense after the index’s 92% gain since its pandemic low.The largest companies, loosely known as Faamg, last September saw day traders flocking to bullish options for quick profits. After an eye-watering 150% gain in 2020, ARKK has dropped 16% so far this year.But damage wasn’t limited to tech’s speculative fringe. Like the geniuses who founded the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, which spectacularly collapsed, Mr. Naouri has an affinity for leverage. Alphabet shares are trading at eight times revenue, the highest in more than a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, while Facebook’s price-to-sales multiple is nine -- nearly twice that of the average Nasdaq 100 company.Roaring BearsBears boosted bets against tech stocks as the industry’s leadership faltered amid a flight to the reflation trade. 10. If our estimates of property sale contributions to EBITDA are correct, then in 2014 and H1 2015, the France business deteriorated substantially more than investors understand. This answer should individually cover 2014, H1 2015, H2 2015, and 2016. "The basic problem with Casino is that its financial statements are literally meaningless to understanding the company's (poor) health. - CapEx In the short term, the gauge is approaching its average price over the 100 days, a trend line that sits within 0.1% of the index’s current level and has served as support during the selloff in last November and again in March. To encourage transparency and accuracy we’re publishing a list of 10 questions for you to answer on the January 14th call. They also bought U.K. equities and debt.While they may continue to regard the U.K. as a good bet -- the economy is forecast to outgrow its major peers this year -- Brexit has raised some awkward questions.The U.K. is no longer part of the EU single market, access to which was a key reason for many firms choosing to invest in Britain.The government also appears to have jettisoned the idea of trying to lure investors by turning Britain into a “Singapore of Europe” with low taxes and light-touch regulation. Sheeraz previously ran a taxation firm. Sony needs to ramp up production as soon as possible and ensure consoles on store shelves, Totoki said. + dividends (from non wholly-owned subsidiaries). Casino’s guidance for its France / Parent 2016 FCF is bullish. (Adds Nasdaq futures move in the third paragraph. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Odey Special Situations Fund is Read More. He has, as a result of this harm, been a successful trader. Despite the retail genius behind Casino’s aggressive discounting strategy, which you were touting on calls as early as January 2013, Casino’s 11.6% market share as of November 29, 2015 is lower than the 11.8% share as of March 24, 2013. There is no investor-friendly reason to refuse to provide this information. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. jo.src = 'https://www.financialjuice.com/widgets/voice-player.js?mode=inline&display=1&container=FJ-voice-news-player&info=valuewalk&r=' + r; In addition, Casino uses the indirect method to prepare its cash flow statement. Is Casino’s very temporary reduction of commercial paper outstanding at the end of 2015 an attempt to window dress the balance sheet? Sony had sold 7.8 million console units through March 31, 2021. Our point is that while the S&P methodology might work well for understanding the effective debt of many retailers, due to Casino’s idiosyncrasies, it understates the debt. Carson C. Block. Other speculative corners of the market have also suffered, with an ETF tracking special-purpose acquisition companies slumping 20% this year.Read more: Rout Lands on Nasdaq Where Shorts Are Massing, Bulls Getting OutWith ARKK down some 34% from its February peak, options activity paints an increasingly gloomy picture. Carson Block is arguably the world's "most feared short-seller and fraud-sniffing dog", whose ten-year "reign of terror" spread from China to France, says Jon Shazar on Dealbreaker. We would think these errors would have been evident to Casino. var jo = document.createElement('script'); In other words, S&P erroneously assumes Casino has access to 100% of the surplus cash, and adjusted only for the gross debt at the listed subsidiaries – not the net debt. The gap is forecast to reach its widest since World War II this year as Britain grapples with post-Brexit ties with the European Union and an imports-fueled rebound from the pandemic.That will test the willingness of foreign investors to keep on funding the spending habits of the nation by buying British assets. British Airways-owner IAG said on Tuesday it would raise 825 million euros ($1 billion) from a convertible bond, the group's latest move to strengthen its balance sheet as travel remains at very low levels during the pandemic. Alba, who co-founded the direct-to-consumer brand in 2011 and now serves as chief creative officer, brought some Hollywood glamour to the IPO last week with multiple media appearances.There have been hints that the pandemic boom is starting to subside for packaged goods, with some peers reporting higher costs and uneven demand trends recently. We did not discuss these errors S&P made when we unveiled our short thesis because we hoped Casino in its response would point them out. They have redone the inside and it does look nice. Average market share in H2 2015 was only seven bps greater than in H2 2014 (11.58% vs. 11.51%). Plot the Nasdaq’s relative altitude versus the S&P 500 shows the ratio has fallen back below its 2000 peak again. Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) sank 5.2% to the lowest since November as its biggest holdings nosedived, with the likes of Tesla Inc., Roku Inc. and Teladoc Health Inc. skidding. Shares of French retailer Groupe Casino plunged after short-seller Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research, issued a report calling the company "one of the most overvalued and misunderstood" he has ever seen. This opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.80 level. Given that the Fitch Group’s chairman has sat on Casino’s board since 2003, and that Mr. Naouri is on the board of the controlling shareholder of Fitch, how is it appropriate that Fitch rates Casino? The sales of full games also declined during the quarter on a Y/Y basis. Recording buying pressures on Ethereum and some altcoins have pushed the crypto market valuation to about 2.5 trillion. They do not distinguish between what Casino owns and what it owes. jeudi 17 décembre 2015 à 20h00. 6. The number of bearish put contracts outstanding has jumped to a record. Carson Block: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Casino. "We expect in the weeks that follow that June date, all employees in England will be in the office on a consistent schedule," the bank said. The Fitch rating poses another question: How easily could a ratings analyst find the courage to downgrade a company when the chairman of her ratings agency is a long serving board member of the company she rates? Sony announced a buy back up to $1.8 billion (200 billion yen) shares after the March quarter profit fell short of analyst estimates. Therefore, Casino’s response appears to be an attempt to further mislead investors. Please speak to a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions. )For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. London stocks struggled for traction on Monday, boosted by shares of mining companies as commodity prices climbed, but were held back by a strong pound. Selon le gérant du fonds spéculatif new-yorkais Muddy Waters, le groupe français aurait chargé un faux journaliste de le cuisiner. Mais Carson Block va encore être traité de menteur ou de vil patron de fonds activiste. Carson Block and other fraud hunters say the next big wave of scandals may now be imminent as the coronavirus crisis makes bad behavior tougher to conceal. The International Monetary Fund says Britain will have the biggest shortfall among major industrial nations.In recent years, Britain has had no problems funding the gap. But the worry is hard to shake in a sector that defies traditional investment analysis.The share of the largest cryptocurrency could be declining because investors are getting more comfortable with a wider array of tokens. Shares of French retailer Groupe Casino plunged after short-seller Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research, issued a … As we previously wrote, Casino’s consolidated financials are meaningless to understand the cash flow to the parent. Casino’s response states that it “strictly applies” IFRS. Answering this question will help investors compare Casino to other retailers. Sony shares have lost around 8% since the April 28 earnings report, after rising 75% over the previous year. “Although the jury is still out on whether this is merely a temporary issue, the prospect of inflation is leading investors to seek out areas that are better insulated from the threat of rising prices.”Duck and CoverThe breadth of the tech plunge made Monday particularly painful for bulls. Burford Capital would like the Muddy Waters founder’s rebellious phase to … The Australian dollar continues to move higher, as we have finally broken above the 0.78 level handily. How is booking gains on sales of property so that they’re included in EBITDA consistent with Casino’s disclosed accounting policy or IFRS? Control person(s) have significant equity stakes and / or equity incentives. An ... His campaign against French retailer Casino saw the regulator open an investigation into Mr Block in 2016. Teladoc Inc., also heavily weighted in the ETF, dropped less than 1%.The stock rotation out of expensive-looking tech names is proving tough for Wood and her firm, Ark Investment Management, with investors pulling more than $500 million from the main fund in May so far.Big bets on the likes of Tesla and Bitcoin lured billions to Ark’s products, but more recently investors have been souring on the kind of pricey shares the money manager favors in companies with often unproven technologies. Carson Block, « short-seller » activiste, patron de Muddy Waters, fait trembler les géants de l’économie. Casino disagrees. Groupe Casino fell 11.5% on Thursday to 43.34 euros, while shares of parent company Rallye fell 19% to end the day at 13.55 euros. He's been called the world's most feared short seller, causing nearly a dozen companies to be shut down or delisted. The table below showing Casino’s market share versus its “Real” EBITDA (i.e., excluding our estimate of gains on sale in 2014 and 2015) strongly casts doubt on the notion that there’s any relationship between Casino’s present market share and EBITDA generated by selling products in stores. Your complete and intellectually honest answers to the following questions will go a long way toward allowing investors to determine whether our opinion, that Casino is a highly-levered, poorly performing business being hollowed-out and managed primarily to buy time for the massive debt its controlling shareholder has amassed, is reasonable. Block on CNBC’s Squawk Box discussing MW's latest short, eHealth Inc. Watch the full interview here… more . - cash taxes Bottom line: if there’s nothing to hide, then stop hiding it. How much of the proceeds of property sales to Mercialys were, or are expected to be, included in Operating Cash Flow? (In our experience, only Sino-Forest might have been faster with a lawsuit threat.) Should you wish to regain investors’ confidence or change our minds, you should answer these questions fully, openly, and without caveats. The bonds, which are expected to be priced Tuesday, are being marketed at around 8 basis points over U.S. Treasuries, according to people familiar with the matter.Canada’s economy is expected to grow 6.1% this year, up from a 5.4% decline in 2020, according to analysts’ consensus compiled by Bloomberg. S&P’s 2014 lease expense was €801 million, which divided into S&P’s operating lease adjustment of €1.9 billion equals a remaining average term of Casino’s leases of just under 2.5 years. Carson Block, in particular, has been effective in corroding value. There are also numerous instances of your using the phrase “by definition”, which we interpret as often signaling your discomfort discussing a particular topic. We’re not sure there are a lot of fiercely independent personalities found among ratings analysts. 1. Sterling is currently at $1.41 and 86 pence per euro.To be sure, large current-account deficits do not hold the fear they did in past decades, when crises were precipitated by attempts to support fixed exchange rates by exhausting gold and currency reserves. Cole at RBC points out that recent inflows have shifted toward loans and deposits -- “hot money” that could quickly leave the country if sentiment on Britain soured.“Seemingly unsustainable deficits can be sustained for a very long period and they don’t seem to matter until they do matter,” he said on Monday. Chipotle just dropped the hammer on its rivals by lifting its hourly minimum wage to $15 an hour. He is an expert in technology, he has over 5.5 years of design, development and roll-out experience for SEO and SEM. "In light of this dissemination of misleading information, Rallye has filed a claim with the Autorité des Marchés Financiers and reserves the possibility to exercise its rights before national courts, including criminal courts," the company said. What is the evidence of a meaningful and sustainable recovery in Casino’s France business beyond management’s bullish EBITDA guidance and recent miniscule market share gains? Alternatively, retail traders may be chasing quick, speculative gains.“Even if you don’t invest in the space, this is worth tracking,” DataTrek’s Colas wrote in a recent note. The popular PlayStation 4 has sold over 115.9 million units to date. Son tweet du 31 août avait fait perdre à Casino plus de 10 % en une séance de Bourse. La menace d'un retour des fonds activistes en France couvait depuis plusieurs mois. In reviewing transcripts, we note that you told questioners six times in calls held during H2 2015 that the items they wanted to know about were not the purpose, objective, or subject of the call. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. S&P did not look through CBD's ownership of Via Varejo, which is only 43.3%. Carson Block, Muddy Waters founder Mr Block’s reputation precedes him. 1. The gain or loss arising from the derecognition of an asset is determined as the difference between the net sale proceeds, if any, and the carrying amount of the asset. “When they do, nothing else seems to matter.” For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. Sony Group Corp (NYSE: SONY) warned an analyst group regarding PlayStation 5 supply crisis till 2022 partly due to the semiconductor chip crisis, insinuating sales target constraints for its latest games console, Bloomberg reports. We criticized Noble for its leverage and aggressive accounting (similar to our criticism of Casino). He added that with more than $2 trillion now invested in virtual currencies, “a meaningful reset lower could also affect more traditional financial assets like equities.”For the JPMorgan team, the possible retail-driven froth in cryptocurrencies is a reminder of late 2017, when a crypto boom peaked.Ether RecordAmong the most notable moves in the crypto market Monday was Ether’s jump past $4,000 for the first time after a climb of more than 2,000% in the past year. Le gestionnaire de fonds de Muddy Waters a lancé une attaque éclair en décembre. Depuis, Carson Block a fermé ses positions sur Casino. What this means is S&P only reduces Adjusted Net Debt by the non-controlling share of Adjusted Debt without regard to the cash that is not owned by Casino. Casino seems to be following the financial engineer’s handbook, which generally goes as follows: Usually this ends quite badly for companies and investors. Casino’s response to our criticism of its apparent practice in 2014 and 2015 of inflating France EBITDA by including gains on sales of properties reads in part (emphasis added): “As a fully-fledged operational activity, real estate development generates results, which have constantly been reflected in the EBITDA according to the Group’s accounting principles, and in compliance with IFRS standards.”. The JPMorgan team said an analysis of activity on the affiliated Ethereum blockchain suggests a lower fair value of $1,000 for the token.Dogecoin -- which started as a joke in 2013 but is now a dominating Internet meme and sitting on a 20,000% advance in the past year -- captured the headlines over the weekend.First off, billionaire Elon Musk cited the token again, this time in a much-touted television appearance on the U.S. show Saturday Night Live. Either because of or in spite of Block’s reputation, the French market regulator, the AMF, decided to take a closer look at his practices after he began his focus on Casino. When I drove up it has all changed. As we discuss next, as of 2013, Casino appeared to account for these gains in accordance with the above policy, which further calls into question Casino’s accounting for these gains in 2014 and H1 2015. par Matthieu Protard. First, the overstatement of Via Varejo’s EBITDA contribution occurred because S&P’s flawed methodology assumes CDB owns 100% of Via Varejo. In practice, the way that indirect statements are often prepared is by first preparing the Investing Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow sections. IAG, which also owns Aer Lingus, Iberia and Vueling, has a weekly cash burn rate of 175 million euros while most of its fleet is grounded due to restrictions, meaning its focus over the past year has been on raising funds. 4. © 2011-2021 VALUEWALK LLC. Unless the company has a rationale we haven’t considered, this practice seems to directly contravene its policy on accounting for asset de-recognition. This answer should individually cover 2014, H1 2015, H2 2015, and 2016. (Bloomberg) -- Canada plans to sell bonds in the U.S. dollar market for the first time since the start of the pandemic as the North American country’s vaccination campaign gradually gains pace amid a third wave of the virus.The North American country plans to sell five-year bonds in the first benchmark-sized transaction in the currency since January 2020, Bloomberg data show. Carson Block: meet the man who took down UAE's NMC Health. If Casino adhered to the above policy and books property sale gains as Other Operating Income, these gains would not be included in EBITDA because they would be below the Operating Income line. Are there other ways in which Casino window dressed its 2015 financials (e.g., taking longer than usual to pay suppliers)? Describe in detail the means by which Casino can upstream cash from its foreign subsidiaries to its parent. The company’s internal management’s guidance for console production lies between 28 million - 29 million consoles, above its official target of 25.5 million. Airbus has appointed a senior internal supply chain executive to run its Canadian operation, with responsibility for trimming losses on the A220 jetliner series, in the latest in a series of management changes at the European aerospace group. Carson Block is a short-seller, investor and the founder of Muddy Waters Research. The New York Stock Exchange FANG Index fell 3.6%, putting the gauge on track for its worst month since March 2020. With inflation expectations leaping to the highest level since 2006, everything from the biggest megacap tech stocks to the frothiest small fry was slammed. First, Casino took only approximately 3.5 hours from the release of our short thesis to threaten to sue us. Benoit Schultz, 48, will take over on Sept. 1 from Philippe Balducchi, a former finance executive who became the first head of the Canadian venture when Airbus bought the CSeries jet programme from Bombardier in 2018 and renamed it A220. Bitcoin remains in a tight trading range between $56,400 and $59,700 as it begins to knock on the door of the major $60,000 level of resistance. Banks Are Setting An Ambitious Technology Agenda. We count 13 times since 2013 that you told questioners the company does not disclose a particular number. We find two aspects of Casino’s response to our short particularly interesting, which is part of why we’re writing this open list of questions. 5. Casino’s investing cash flow shows proceeds from disposals of noncurrent assets in 2014 and H1 2015 that are far lower than the proceeds from property sales to Mercialys. Depuis, Carson Block et sa société d'analyses financières Muddy Waters font profil bas. See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaSony Targets .8B Share Repurchase To Make Up For The Profit Miss: Bloomberg© 2021 Benzinga.com. (Spoiler: we estimate Casino's LTM leverage ratio at 8.9x. To throw down the gauntlet, we think it highly likely that Casino’s discounting strategy has not generated much of an increase in profitability, and that the company is using property sale gains to cover this up. While the currency has rallied this year amid a brightening economic outlook, strategists say further significant gains are unlikely.The current-account gap, which also includes flows of investment income, may almost double to 6.4% of economic output this year, according to the U.K.’s fiscal watchdog. Casino’s response stated that our short thesis contained “a number of false and misleading allegations”.2 Despite this bluster Casino’s response failed to address the core concerns we outlined. It is recognized in profit or loss (“Other operating income and expense”) when the asset is derecognized”. We question whether this FCF guidance is inflated by anticipated property and other asset sales. 7. We continue to believe that despite Casino’s view the property sales are operating activities, when combined with Casino’s leaseback or repurchase, the sales are in fact financing transactions. Last week Nintendo Co Ltd (OTC: NTDOY) warned regarding a production impact from the component crisis. Block is known for documenting and alleging fraudulent accounting practices in publicly traded Chinese companies.. The 1967 devaluation of the pound that humiliated Harold Wilson’s Labour government followed years of balance of payments problems.Now the pound floats freely, meaning that the exchange rate can fall to a level where foreign investors once again find British assets attractive, sparing Britain an abrupt funding crisis.With British assets owned by foreigners now worth around six times the size of the economy, an adjustment may not be without pain, however. The difference between the periodic change in cash and the sum of Investing and Financing cash flow then often becomes the OCF number. Is Casino aware of two fundamental errors in S&P’s leverage calculations: overstating the proportional EBITDA contribution from Via Varejo by €164 million, and overstating proportional cash by €2.6 billion (thereby understating net debt)? Carson Block’s Effort To Avoid Becoming His Father A Serious Pain For Potentially Fraudulent Businesses. Par Beatrice Parrino Publié le 20/12/2018 à 09h00 Futures on the Nasdaq 100 slid as much as 1.4% in early Asian trading on Tuesday.“Inflationary pressures are becoming harder to ignore,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors. If we’re correct that significant property sale gains are included in EBITDA, then we strongly disagree. The company’s failure to address our estimates of respective property sale gain contributions to EBITDA in 2014 and LTM of €140 million and €165 million gives us confidence our estimates are not high. - Email: sraza(at)valuewalk.com. All rights reserved. Even as the economy recovers, Canada’s jobs market hit a snag in April as a third wave of lockdowns and Covid-19 restrictions led to job losses.While Canada’s vaccination campaign has more than doubled in the last month to over one-third of the population with a first dose, just around 3% are fully vaccinated.Canada’s bond deal is also the first transaction in the U.S. dollar currency since Fitch Ratings downgraded it to its second highest investment-grade level, citing higher public debt ratios. Had S&P made an adjustment for proportional cash, Casino’s proportional adjusted debt would be €2.6 billion more than it used for its proportional leverage calculations. How much EBITDA has been, and is expected to be, generated by property sales? If the store leases with fewer than 2.5 years remaining were not renewed, by how much would proportional EBITDA decrease? Data and research company New Constructs called Honest “overvalued” and said the stock is “worth no more than $7” a share.Honest didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. Andrew Zimmern, a James Beard award-winning chef, says that $28.6 billion is not sufficient to help the ailing restaurant industry recover. Ethereum has soared this year, fuelled by the boom in DeFi, which are platforms that facilitate crypto-denominated lending outside traditional banking. Carson Block: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Casino, Please speak to a licensed financial professional, The Texas Storm: Understood With Peter Kelly-Detwiler, Hoarding Wealth: Seven Deadly Economic Sins, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, CitiGroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs – Earnings Preview, Bronze Age Pompeii Discovered In Peterborough, Britain. This answer should individually cover 2014, H1 2015, H2 2015, and 2016. They aggressively seek to grow earnings through debt financing. })(); ValueWalk.com is a highly regarded, non-partisan site – the website provides unique coverage on hedge funds, large asset managers, and value investing. Early life and career. RPT-ENCADRE-Casino-Carson Block confirme le retour des activistes en France Reuters • 18/12/2015 à 06:59. With Rallye’s NAV less than zero at Casino’s current share price, we similarly have not seen a reason to change our estimate of its value. Instead, Casino defended S&P without condition or caveat. Its failure in March to hold above that resistance was flagged by DoubleLine Capital LP founder Jeffrey Gundlach as a sign that another collapse may be in store.Cooling CallsWhile none of the data shows significant jumps in bearish sentiment, it’s consistent with a backdrop in which the extreme bullishness that has marked the last 14 months shows signs of subsiding. Carson Block, chief executive of Muddy Waters Capital. Noble has since been downgraded by both ratings agencies and its stock has declined by 64%. “This can increase the premium investors demand to invest in U.K. assets.”The deficit is adding to the longer-term risks gathering over the pound, which also include the prospect of another Scottish independence referendum. The forecast reflects an export performance hobbled by Brexit and strong demand for foreign-made goods as the economy rebounds at pace from the pandemic.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“It’s well known that the U.K. is a serial borrower from the rest of the world. How much EBITDA has been, and is expected to be, generated by property sales? As debt grows, their focus grows to include gaming credit metrics – particularly operating cash flow. Is Casino unaware of these errors; or, is Casino so intent on misleading investors that it failed to adequately caveat its defense of S&P? “When funding markets tighten, that stress always exposes frauds,” Block, the Muddy Waters Capital founder who’s best known for betting against companies with questionable accounting, said in an email interview. The ETF is on track for its first yearly outflow since 2016.Troubling TechnicalsCharts on the Nasdaq 100 look precarious.