But it would be a mistake to confuse calm with insignificance. The Israeli prime minister has broken with the Israeli right-wing policy of creeping annexation. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gears up to fulfill his pledge to advance Israeli sovereignty over 30 percent of the West Bank starting July 1, politicians and analysts around the world are wondering what is motivating this annexation drive. He served as a special assistant for the Middle East under President Barack Obama. The predictable end result will be strong criticism of Israel, paired with blame for the Palestinian leadership for its refusal to negotiate. Netanyahu himself had been following this strategy until recently. By destroying any remaining prospects of keeping the two-state solution alive, annexation will inevitably lead current and future generations of Palestinians to demand equal rights in a single political entity, and Israel’s denial of those rights will weaken its support around the world. Annexation Will Probably Go Smoothly. With the exception of the Trump Administration, the world sees annexation as a direct violation of international law and conventions. Over time, annexation could have similar effects on U.S. politics. On June 12, Yousef Al Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates ambassador to the US, took the extraordinary step of penning an op-ed in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth to express his country’s rejection of unilateral annexation in the West Bank. The bad news for them, however, is what annexation means in the longer term. Jordan's annexation was never formally recognized by the international community, with the exception of the United Kingdom and Iraq. The right-wing ideologues who preceded Netanyahu, such as Prime Ministers Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Shamir and Ariel Sharon, adhered to a policy of quiet, creeping annexation. Some Arab countries now value good relations with Israel over the Palestinian cause—and not just for strategic reasons. The status of the Old City of Jerusalem, the ‘Holy Basin’ (the area around the Old City), Judea and Samaria is complex. They have launched a public campaign against the Trump plan. Rather than looking to the United States or United Nations to help them negotiate with Israel, they will be more inclined to appeal to the International Criminal Court to bring charges against the occupation forces and their leaders. Annexation Will Probably Go Smoothly. Biden shouldn’t go along. Israel’s upcoming election: Where did the occupation go? This evolution could continue to be gradual or, as was the surge of support for Black Lives Matter, abrupt. Actually, for Netanyahu, such a scenario could be one of the most positive consequences of annexation. These groups will be more likely to equate annexationist Israel with apartheid South Africa, espouse the ideals of equal rights and democratic representation, and increasingly challenge their leadership’s traditionally close ties to Israel. Israel may get more territory in the short term but come to regret it, while Palestinians forced to swallow annexation may ultimately embrace it as having advanced their fight for equal rights by destroying the ever more elusive fantasy of the two-state solution. However, de facto annexation has been taking place since the Six-Day War, Scheindlin argued, in the form of the settlement movement. In practice, however, it is hard to see many Europeans taking steps that would truly punish Israel given their own internal divisions, domestic politics, and broader interests in relations with the Jewish state. As Trump put it in October 2019, “Remember the world was going to come to an end, right? Thus, if Trump gives the go-ahead, territorial annexation would turn into political separation. Already, much of the Palestinian public has lost faith in the Palestinian Authority, in talks with Israel, and in U.S. mediation. A decision to fully take down the PA is not inconceivable. Results of a June 8 poll aired on Channel 12 in Israel suggest that if elections were held now, Netanyahu’s Likud party would gain 40 Knesset seats (compared to its current 36), making it by far the country’s largest political party. Netanyahu, a seasoned prime minister, cannot be blind to all these repercussions. “I call on the Israeli government to abandon its annexation plans.”, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas flew to Israel just. By annexing the West Bank, Israel would be taking over occupied Palestinian territory and making it an integral part of the Israeli state. Annexation could play out in similar ways, at least in the short run. And for what? However, the implementation of the annexation plan is not going to be easy under Trump’s presidency, either. Yes, … The good news for proponents of annexation is that while such dramatic developments are possible, none are likely. Due to this … There is no reason to expect an earthquake in the wake of an Israeli annexation decision. WHAT WILL CHANGE WITH ANNEXATION? According to a recent poll, 48 percent of Americans identifying as Democrats support the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement, and only 15 percent oppose it. News, stories and analysis from the Topic Annexation of Palestine. But trends within the party are clear, and combined with a scenario in which Israel continues to deny millions of Palestinians their rights could lead to dramatic changes over time. Annexation is just the beginning of coming hardship for Palestinians—more laws will likely be codified, enshrining Israeli rights over Palestinian land and resources. The law seeks to legalize its settler policy of transferring its civilians into “settlements” in occupied Palestinian territory and forcibly displacing the local population, a practice internationally condemned and a violation of international humanitarian law. 31°c. Annexation of the West Bank, or parts thereof, has been proposed by some Israeli politicians since the area was captured and occupied by Israel during But no one should be surprised if, a few years down the road, Israelis find themselves yearning for the two-state solution they will have helped to bury, and Palestinians embrace the idea of a one-state solution that Israel’s actions helped produce. By Omair Kamran On Jun 30, 2020. On June 10, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas flew to Israel just to warn Netanyahu that annexation could prompt European sanctions and possibly the official recognition of a Palestinian state. They may consider more forward-leaning ideas, such as a ban on goods imported from annexed areas, suspending the EU-Israel trade agreement, or recognizing a Palestinian state on undetermined borders. The international community is overwhelmingly against annexation. Israeli activists protest against the U.S. peace plan for the Middle East, in Jerusalem on May 15. Any annexation by Israel, they argue, would leave Palestinian areas fragmented and the Palestinian people with considerably less land for a country of their own. Abu Dhabi. They will no doubt oppose any form of annexation in public, if only to protect themselves against accusations of betrayal from Iran, Turkey, and their own populations. Mohammed bin Salman’s much-touted domestic reform agenda won’t succeed until it ensures Shiite religious freedom. Israel’s annexation of Palestinian territory won’t trigger a disaster. The Problems Will Come Later. that could remove US President Donald Trump from power and bury the “peace” plan bearing his name, which for the first time in 53 years gave Israel the green light to annex Palestinian territories. Successive Israeli governments have refrained from imposing Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank for more than half a century, since Israel occupied the land in 1967. The land is already under complete military occupation. It was a direct violation of international law. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance. That leaves the United States. The Problems Will Come Later. People who care about the region will be watching closely to see if Palestinians rise up in protest, if the Palestinian Authority will collapse or be disbanded, if Arab countries cut off budding ties with Israel, or if European countries impose sanctions on Israel or recognize a Palestinian state. And the United Arab Emirates, along with other Gulf Arab states, has developed quiet, behind-the-scenes ties to Israel for reasons that will endure regardless of what Israel does on the West Bank. Following Jordan’s warning about the dire consequences of annexation for regional peace, Gantz could argue that annexation does not comply with the terms of the coalition deal and quit the government. That long-term strategy began in 1948 when 750,000 Palestinians were forced from their villages and farm land. The new generation of Gulf Arab leaders do not have the same passion for the Palestinian cause as their predecessors did and are unlikely to subordinate their main priority—cooperation with Israel against Iran—to it. Wednesday 5 May 2021. “Israel’s decision on annexation will be an unmistakable signal of whether it sees it the same way.”. Wednesday May 05, 2021. The pandemic is revealing Israel’s festering sore, Naftali Bennett’s secret to power: He is not Netanyahu, Israeli strike causes collapse of tower in Gaza, Palestinians say 21 killed as Israeli air raids on Gaza continue, Melinda Gates met divorce lawyers when Epstein ties revealed: WSJ, Break the fear barrier and speak up for Palestine, Al Jazeera Centre for Public Liberties & Human Rights. One explanation for Netanyahu’s rush to move from de facto to de jure annexation is the upcoming United States presidential election that could remove US President Donald Trump from power and bury the “peace” plan bearing his name, which for the first time in 53 years gave Israel the green light to annex Palestinian territories. “What brings us here on this day of rage is the annexation of all settlements in the West Bank and large swaths of the Jordan Valley. Most Democrats in Congress, almost all of whom have expressed clear opposition to annexation, will take a similar stance. “If implemented, annexation would constitute a most serious violation of international law, grievously harm the prospect of a two-state solution and undercut the possibilities of a renewal of negotiations,” United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said at a recent Security Council meeting. Israel exercises virtually complete security control over the West Bank, and Palestinians seem unlikely to want to risk the harsh repression, suffering, and chaos that would follow any uprising. It would further the disenfranchisement of the Palestinians and cut off the chance of their having a viable, contiguous state. Here too, skepticism is in order. The longer term, however, is a different story. Arab countries likewise have warned of dire implications. The timing and scope of the plan is still uncertain, but when Israel announces its expected decision to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, the world’s attention will turn to the immediate impact. China Is Building Entire Villages in Another Country’s Territory, Claims of Microwave Attacks Are Scientifically Implausible, Biden Looks for Defense Hotline With China, The Countdown to an Israeli War With Iran Has Begun. The American decision which, again, flouted international law, paves the way for further Israeli colonial annexations of occupied Palestine. David Elhayani, who chairs the umbrella council of the settlements, went as far as to claim Trump and Kushner “are not friends of the State of Israel.”. The latest example was the United States’ recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which, for all its heavy symbolism, elicited an underwhelming response. In August 1980, the UN’s Resolution 478 condemned the annexation, deeming it “null and void”. Jordan has an enduring interest in sustaining its peace treaty with Israel, particularly at a time of serious economic distress, and will want to avoid triggering greater instability. Share. Europeans will protest, too, and their leaders—including French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson—have been forceful in cautioning Israel. That plan will never work—not only because it is virtually impossible to construct a viable, sovereign, contiguous Palestinian state on the disjointed parcels of territory that would remain, but also for political and psychological reasons. For the current Palestinian leadership, annexation will make the already difficult task of defending the two-state solution an almost impossible one. But the aftermath will be toxic for the Jewish state. Top Israeli security officials, meanwhile, are warning that annexation would give rise to violence and bolster Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Authority. Predictions of catastrophe have often accompanied Israeli or U.S. decisions that are hostile to Palestinians, and they have just as often proven wrong. Robert Malley is president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. the door for a Palestinian state while ending any expansion of Israeli settlements in much of the West Bank. Annexation would severely hinder any prospect of an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, would jeopardize Israel’s relations with moderate Arab states, particularly with Jordan, further erode Israel’s international standing, and threaten the stability of the US-Israel relationship. 1917 – Pre-British Mandate Palestine. Israeli settlements. The days that follow Israeli annexation may not look a lot different from the days that precede it. 2. Philip H. Gordon is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a former White House coordinator for the Middle East in the Obama administration, and the author of Losing the Long Game: the False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East. Israel’s annexation of Palestine: MAPPED The entire timeline explained via maps. U.S. President Donald Trump and his advisors have been quick to point to that precedent in arguing that annexation likewise would pass without a tremor. Even if annexation changes nothing on the ground on day one, it would represent a fundamental turning point. Meanwhile, 81 percent of Democrats favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness and support Arab and Jewish equality if a two-state solution is ruled out, “even if that means Israel would no longer be a politically Jewish state.” And only 13 percent of Democrats favor Israel’s Jewishness more than its democracy, “even if it means that Palestinians will not have citizenship and full rights.” Those are numbers that should make Israel and its supporters think twice. The current issue between Israel and Palestine is a critical conflict as Palestinians face possible annexation from regions in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, affecting 2.1 to 3 million Palestinians. Among young Palestinians in the territories, in Israel, and in the diaspora, the two-state solution is viewed as worse than unrealistic—it is unappealing. Top Israeli security officials, meanwhile, He is also well aware of the clause in his, An election campaign would delay his criminal trial and could boost his political power. Trump’s position is not at issue, since annexation, according to the Israeli government’s own coalition agreement, will occur only with Washington’s blessing. Under a limited annexation scenario, some will even give Netanyahu credit for listening to critics and supposedly salvaging the possibility of a two-state solution. It would not take much for them to turn in another direction entirely. “In the UAE and across much of the Arab world, we would like to believe Israel is an opportunity, not an enemy,” he wrote. Predictions of catastrophe have often accompanied Israeli or U.S. decisions that are hostile to Palestinians, and they have just as often proven wrong. According to recent reports, he is concerned that “allowing Israel to move too fast could further alienate the Palestinians”. After all the warnings that annexation will trigger a disaster, all eyes will be on how the various parties respond. Nothing happened.” Promising a “big announcement” on annexation when speaking to the press on June 25, White House counselor Kellyanne Conway said, “There’s always this scare tactic … of all the bad that’s going to happen, and then it doesn’t happen.”. “I call on the Israeli government to abandon its annexation plans.”. No Comments on Palestine and Israel: Mapping an annexation | Human Rights News | Al Jazeera What will the maps of Palestine and Israel look like if … It is gradually becoming the subject of an international dispute that could even lead to … Annexation would accelerate a profound shift, already underway, in the ways in which various parties view the conflict and its eventual resolution. [16] [17] [18] A two-state option, dividing Palestine, as opposed to a binary solution arose during the period of the British mandate in the area. Annexation will proceed, the new map will be presented as the basis for future territorial negotiations, and many Israelis will once again feel that they have advanced their interests without paying a price.Annexation will proceed, the new map will be presented as the basis for future territorial negotiations, and many Israelis will once again feel that they have advanced their interests without paying a price. Presumed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who holds a significant lead over Trump in the polls, has, telling Jewish donors during a May 20 fundraising webinar, “I’m going to reverse Trump administration steps which I think significantly undercut the prospects of peace.”, If implemented, annexation would constitute a most serious violation of international law, grievously harm the prospect of a two-state solution and undercut the possibilities of a renewal of negotiations,” United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said at a recent Security Council meeting. The EU got its act together not by banning exports but through classic cooperation with industry. What Palestinian leader could agree to sit down with a party that has formally taken the land over which they are supposed to negotiate? The signs of what is to come are already there. Palestinian civil society has made a global call for ‘effective measures’ to be taken to stop this annexation happening. Results of a June 8. Jewish voters would accept a supposed “ideological” reason for dismantling of the so-called “unity” government, especially with the blessing of a US president who they adore, even if they do not like the idea of additional elections. Jewish voters would accept a supposed “ideological” reason for dismantling of the so-called “unity” government, especially with the blessing of a US president who they adore, even if they do not like the idea of additional elections. Annexation may be the final nail in the coffin of a genuine two-state solution—as opposed to the Palestinian pseudostate Netanyahu has said he accepts and the Trump plan contemplates. It has become an unattractive compromise that would restrict the lives of those living in the West Bank and Gaza to a narrow, disjointed entity, deny them a true capital in Jerusalem, entrench inequality for Palestinian citizens of Israel, give Israelis security control over their country, and prevent even a symbolic number of refugees from returning to their former homes. After all the warnings that annexation will trigger a disaster, all eyes will be on how the various parties respond. 100 Years of Shame: Annexation of Palestine Began in San Remo by Ramzy Baroud Photograph Source: Delegates to the San Remo conference in Italy, 25 April 1920 – Public Domain But as Palestinans we know the annexation is only making the ongoing colonization explicit. But the kind of normalization that matters—cooperation between security services and other covert ties—will almost certainly continue. Opinion polls show declining support for Israel among women, minorities, millennials, and liberals, who increasingly support sanctions to penalize Israel over settlement expansion, human rights abuses, or the use of military force in Gaza. Even the lead architect of Trump’s peace plan, Jared Kushner, is not wild about allowing Netanyahu to start the annexation of Palestinian lands in a hurry. Jordan has raised the specter of a “massive conflict” with Israel, and the United Arab Emirates has asserted that Israel could have either annexation or normalization but not both.